The annual inflation rate is to drop by 1.2% in 2009, down to 4.8%, with this drop to be the result of the administered prices, in the case of which the drop will be smaller, according to the Report on the 2009 macroeconomic situation and also according to forecasts for 2010-2012, released on the Web page of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).
The annual inflation rate is to continue to go down in the next years, with an estimated level of inflation to stand at 3.6% in 2010, 3.2% in 2011, and 2.8% in 2012.
Moreover, due to the restrictions in the monetary policy which have appeared very clear from the National Bank’s (BNR) repeated increase in the key interest in 2008, there is expected a certain stagnation in the depreciation of the exchange rate, nevertheless with the nominal appreciation trend to be resumed soon enough.
Thus, with regards to the exchange rate, there was estimated a moderate appreciation, but which is expected to contribute to the cut in the import prices and also in the administered prices depending on euro.
Such expectations related to changes to happen in the dynamics of the exchange rate are supported also by a favourable evolution with regards to the continuation of the direct foreign investments in the interval ahead too and also by the maintaining of the economic growth structural trends, in the same time with the slowing down of the consumption rate.
Experts estimate the continuation of the process to push inflation downwards in the interval ahead, through the maintaining of a firm conduit of the monetary policy and also of the other components of the economic policy (fiscal, of incomes). Moreover, the gradual cut in the increases in the administrated prices the promotion of a cautious wage policy, the increase in the wage sin the case the labour productivity is below and the continuation of the structural reform are to maintain the disinflation process on a sustainable trend.
Moreover, the continuation of the disinflation process is to contribute to the supplementary drop in the inflationary expectations. Another efficient way to anchor the inflationary anticipations is to maintain the appreciation trend in real terms of the national currency as against euro. This is very possible while taking into account the perspective of a more accelerated growth in the productivity in the Romanian economy as against its main foreign partners.