Annual inflation rate, which stood at 8.63 percent this March, the highest level of the past 26 months, will level off at over 8 pc in Q2 2008, and start falling in the second half of the year, Governor of the BNR, Mugur Isarescu told a monetary policy seminar on April 17.
He said the high inflation of March will continue into the second quarter of the year, with ups and downs, and the BNR estimates should be seen as carrying an error of 0.2-0.3 percent, because BNR does not aim to be a shaman for inflation.
Isarescu also said inflation will stay at high levels toward July, and that the 0.2-0.3 percent should not be seen as failures, but this is rather a question of good luck.
In Isarescu’s opinion, the international financial troubles will have no direct influence on Romania, but the influence will be indirect and strong as far as credibility and sensitivity to foreign appreciations are concerned, some of which are wicked, because Romania’s economy is open and reaching toward maturity.
Monthly inflation this March was 0.67 percent, while inflation March 2007 – March 2008 reached 8.63 percent, compared with a 7.97 percent February 2007 to February 2008 inflation, according to data with the National Statistics Institution (INS).
Inflation in the first quarter of 2008 totaled 2.25 percent, with monthly averages of 0.7 percent, up from 0.1 percent in Q1 2007.
BNR has set the 2008 annual inflation target at 3.8 percent, plus/minus one percent. Year-onyear inflation in December 2007 stood at 6.57 percent, compared with 4.87 percent in December 2006, which exceeded the 3-5 percent variation interval for a 4 percent targeted inflation.