BNR reaffirms its inflation estimates

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The National Bank of Romania (BNR) is reaffirming its inflation estimates, while not excluding fluctuations of 0.2-0.3 percent in the short term, BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu said on May 12.
"April inflation reached the level we had expected. There is no exact science about these estimates, but we can expect fluctuations of 0.2-0.3 percent in them," said Isarescu.
 
Isarescu’s statement came after a news conference of Governor of the National Bank of Belgium Guy Quaden called "The Euro: 10 Years Soon. Facts. Lessons. Prospects."
 
Inflation this April stood at 0.52 percent on a monthly basis and at 8.62 percent year-over-year, which was similar to the year-on-year level recorded in March, which 8.63-percent level was a new high of the past 26 months.
 
Compared with March 2008, food prices rose in April by an average of 1.05 percent; prices for non-foods advanced 0.46 percent, while service fees declined 0.44 percent.
 
Compared with April 2007, food prices advanced 11.44 percent in April 2008, service fees went up 10.42 percent, while prices for non-foods went up 5.51 percent.
 
Upon presenting the latest quarterly inflation report of BNR, Isarescu informed that inflation had been upwardly adjusted from 5.9 percent December 2007 – December 2008 to 6 percent for the same interval.
 
According to Isarescu, inflation should be standing at above 8 percent in Q2, 2008 year-onyear, before dropping in the second half of the year. He also said the high inflation level of March 2008 will continue into Q2 2008, with certain ups and downs, and that the BNR estimates should be considered with an error margin of 0.2-0.3 percentage points.
 
The International Monetary Fund is expecting annual inflation in Romania to stand at 6.5 percent in December 2008, and it says that with a tight and prudent monetary policy, BNR could bring inflation within its targeted bracket.
 
Year-on-year inflation in December 2007 stood at 6.57 percent, up from 4.87 percent in December 2006, which means inflation overshot the 4-percent inflation target set by BNR.
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