Romania’s economic growth might top 8% in 2008 but will lose 2% in 2009, getting down to some 6%, reveals a Synthesis of Macroeconomy worked out by BCR Research.
The latest developments in agriculture reveal that Romania is further dependent on weather conditions, which escape its control power. Even if the 9.3% economic growth registered in Q2 carries macroeconomic risks, a mere shrinking of the value to 6% unaccompanied by a structure shift from consumption towards a net positive export is not enough to diminish the risk of economy overheating.
Following the same thread, it results that the monetary policy is less efficient in the longer term and Romania needs major investments in the processing industry and agriculture in order to rise aggregate supply and improve the structure of economic growth.
The 9.2% economic growth in Q2 exceeded by far analysts’ expectations which stood around 7.8% and the estimations of BCR, which were more optimistic than the market average. Under such circumstances, chances for the all-year GDP growth to exceed 8% are increasingly higher.
Outlooks for Q3 are very good, mainly due to the results in agriculture (the wheat crop increased by some 150% from 2007 and the gross value added in agriculture might rise by a quarter in Q3.)
According to BCR analysts, some risks are still looming over the last quarter of the year, mainly as far as services and constructions are concerned, possibly affected by the central bank’s restrictive monetary policy and the turmoil on international markets. Industrial production might further perform below expectations as the basic positive effect of the commissioning of a new nuclear reactor in 2007 is progressively fading.