Significant fall for inflation in 2009

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The annual rate of inflation (December-to-December) will decline from 6.6% in 2007 to 6.2% this year, falling to 4.5% in 2009, reads a Synthesis of Macroeconomy worked out by BCR Research.
 
After having peaked at 9.04% in July due to the rise in administered prices, the annual rate of inflation will go down significantly in the last summer month (the monthly rate will tend to zero in August). According to BCR experts, an optimistic scenario would even assume a monthly deflation in August.
 
The fall in international oil prices, the domestic offer rich in agri-food products and the appreciation of the local leu will have a positive effect on inflation, so that September might too witness a considerable cut in this indicator.
The premises for the continuation of the positive trend by the end of the year is that no other hike in administered prices occurs, that the exchange rate keeps within the interval 3.5 – 3.7 lei per euro and that international oil prices keep stable.
 
Under such circumstances, BCR experts maintain their estimation for year-end inflation at 6.2%, with the annualized rate possibly getting below the projection made by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) in its latest report on inflation.
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