The new quarterly report on the inflation released by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) has been drawn up on four percent contraction of the economy this year, as set in Romania’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union, but central bank governor Mugur Isarescu remains optimistic that the Romanian economy would grow in 2009 as well.
‘In the first quarter of 2009 the deceleration of the economy was clearly manifest, but the year has four quarters. I stand by my viewpoint that we’ll see a recovery’, Isarescu said on unveiling the Quarterly Report on inflation on Thursday.
Following the talks with the IMF and EU, the Government modified the public budget by projecting a contraction of the economy at four percent this year, after the budget had originally been built on 2.5 percent growth.
The BNR’s original projection of the country’s economic growth this year stood at some two to 2.3 percent.
Governmental sources told at the end of April that the Romanian economy had shrunk about three to four percent in the first quarter, by taking into account the reduced budget receipts. According to the sources, the economy will keep on shrinking in the second quarter at minus 5 percent, with a recovery to be seen in the third quarter and the year 2009 to end in a quarterly shrinkage of minus 2 percent.
The 2009 average value will be minus four percent, as calculated in the agreement Romania closed with the IMF and in the budget revision, the sources said. The governmental experts stressed the national economy will show much better development in 2010, even though Romania will not leave the recession behind; the economic growth while still negative will be smaller at minus 0.1-0.2 percent.