BCR senior economist: Interest on loans and deposits to fall on disinflation

Disinflation, likely to continue into early 2010, will determine a fall in the interest rates on RON-denominated loans and deposits as well as a fall in the monetary policy rate, senior economist of Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) Lucian Anghel told a meeting on Thursday of the National Bank of Romania on the presentation of the quarterly report on inflation.

‘Disinflation will continue, and that will encourage interest rates to fall on RON-denominated loans and deposits, considering that disposable incomes will also decline.
There will be real positive interest rates and I think we can also expect a cut in the monetary policy rate as well,’ said Anghel.

He also said he is expecting stable exchange rates in the second half of the year, in accordance with the message of the BNR Governor, Mugur Isarescu, who talked about the negative projections circulated earlier this year that read an exchange rate of RON 4.7 to the euro, which has not come true.

BNR’s inflation projections point to a rapid decline in price increases and also to inflation getting within the lower end of the targeted range by the end of the year, according to Governor Isarescu.

BNR has downwardly adjusted by 0.1 percentage points the 2009 inflation projection, from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent. The 2010 inflation projection was also downwardly adjusted by 0.2 percentage points, from 2.8 percent, to 2.6 percent.


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