Industrial output could record Q4 2.6 percent increase

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The industrial output could record in the fourth quarter of 2009 a 2.6 percent increase as compared to the same period of 2008, according to a conjuncture investigation for Q4 carried out by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP).

A 5.8 percent annual decrease is forecast due to the contraction of the demand, more visible to the domestic market versus the external one. As for its structure, three distinct situations are to be noticed in the future evolutions of the industrial branches, namely the branches which recover at year-end from the first nine months output’s curtailment (for instance the beverage manufacturing, the production of chemical substances and products, the rubber and plastic materials’ production), the branches which do not seem to have been substantially crisis-affected and will continue their ascending trend in the fourth quarter as well, expecting annual positive values as against the previous year (wood processing, recordings’ printing and reproduction on certain supports, electric outfits’ manufacturing, and also the production of the road transport vehicles) and the branches which do not succeed to get over the crisis effects and whose output levels will stay low: extraction industry, metallurgical industry, light industry and even the industry of other goods from non-metallic ores (construction materials), the furniture industry.

The industrial output recorded in Q3 2009 a slight 0.6 percent increase as against the previous period, a level very close to the one anticipated in the previous inquiry (zero percent), and the reduction reached 8.5 percent (nine percent anticipated level by the economic operators) at nine months. The economic investigation is based on a test sample accomplished on the basis of the accountancy balance sheets and a quiz, both drafted by the National Prognosis Commission.

For the conjuncture inquiries carried out in 2009 a test sample of 567 economic operators from industry was chosen, as a result of a 12 percent rate poll and providing an over 74 percent covering rate.

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