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ING: Romania might record economic growth in Q4 2009

Romania might record quarterly economic growth in the last quarter of 2009, ING Romania senior economist Nicolaie Chidesciuc told a Wednesday debate on the ongoing economic crisis.

‘We can expect a positive economic growth as early as Q4, 2009, on a quarterly basis. Economy has recovered in the Euro zone and Romania might benefit from the recovery,’ said Chidesciuc. Data with the National Statistics Institute (INS) indicate an estimated Q3 2009 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is 0.6 percent smaller in real terms than the Q2’s. Compared with the same quarter of 2008, the GDP is down 7.1 percent, while the aggregate first 10-month GDP was 7.4 percent smaller than in the similar period of the year before.

The ING senior economist said that the main reason for the ongoing economic turmoil in Romania was fiscal policy. ‘Fiscal policy has slipped away ever since 2006. Correcting the Government deficit to 5.9 percent of the GDP in 2010 will not be easy because behind it there is relatively rigid public spending on pensions and wages. The International Monetary Fund is the only solution for Romania, because Romania has proved it cannot self-govern. When Romania was not under anyone’s supervision, it was unable to conduct consistent economic policies,’ said Chidesciuc.

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