The GDP of the fourth quarter of 2009 was, in real terms, 1.5 percent lower compared with the previous quarter (data adjusted seasonally). As against the same quarter of 2008, the GDP (gross series) recorded a 6.6 percent drop.
In the final version of the autumn forecast, the National Forecast Commission estimated for 2009 a 7.7 percent economic drop in Romania, anticipating a 0.5 percent growth in 2010.
According to Premier Emil Boc, Romania will continue to register an economic drop over the two quarters of 2010, but it will recover over the last two quarters and it will conclude the year in the black.
“We hope to reach an economic growth of 1.3 percent at the end of the year,” the Prime Minister said recently, who appreciated that the level of the economic growth may exceed expectations, depending on the global economy evolution.
In the opinion of the Head of Government, 2010 will be a year with a still very low economic growth, far from the previous years’ economic growth, but which will prepare a future economic relaunch.
Romania’s representative in the International Monetary Fund Mihai Tănăsescu estimated that Romania would register a 1.3-1.5 percent economic growth in 2010, a speeding of the growth in 2011, reaching a 5- 6 percent growth in 2012.
According to economist Giovanni Ravasio, former adviser for economic questions of Romania’s Government in 2001-2008, the economic growth of Romania could exceed the three percent level in 2010.
As Romanian economy grew and contracted at the same time with European economy, Romania will be carried away by this positive wave that is quite obvious in Europe and the economic growth predicted by the Romanian authorities can be topped, said Minister of Public Finance Sebastian Vladescu in his turn, who added that there were signs that European economies were recovering and that he hoped that the Italian economist’s estimation for Romania should come true.