Economic growth ranging from 4.0 to 4.7 percent in 2012-2014

The medium-term prognosis scenario, namely 2012-2014, features the speeding up of the economic growth by between 4.0 and 4.7 percent, which should make up for the decreases in 2009-2010 due to the economic and financial crisis, and making sure that it will catch up with the more advanced EU member states, according to the 2011-2013 National Reform Programme (PNR) that has recently been adopted by the Government.

The macroeconomic framework for 2011 considers the fact that the economic and financial developments will improve and the economy will resume its sustainable growth so that a 1.5 percent increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) should be possible.

The scenario that is valid till 2014 relies on improving the activity in all the economic fields, especially in the industrial branches with a high export potential, such as constructions, which can turn to account the necessary infrastructure existing in all fields.

Thus, the real GDP for 2011 is planned to amount to 1.5 percent and the nominal one, to 5.5 percent, for 2012, to 4 percent and 8.9 percent respectively, for 2013, to 4.5 percent and 9.1 percent respectively, and for 2014, the real GDP is estimated at 4.7 percent and the nominal one, at 9.3 percent.

According to the document mentioned before, the domestic demand will be the motive power of this development, with the gross fixed capital formation growing by 5.8 to 8.5 percent in 2014.

While the expenses of the private consumption increase by about 4 percent and the available income and the confidence in the economic climate grow, the expenses of the governmental consumption will start registering a positive dynamics after a two-year diminution, which should nevertheless ensure the cut in their share in the gross domestic product and the improvement of the efficiency of the budget expenses. Exports and imports of goods and services will stay high, with a growth amounting to over 7 percent in real terms.

For 2011-2014 the Government estimates the annual average growth rate of goods exports at 13.9 percent. The domestic economic activity will require more numerous additional exports at an annual average rate of 11.6 percent.

Consequently, the share of the FOB-FOB trade deficit in the GDP will grow by up to 2.5 percent in 2014. Thus, the FOB exports will increase to 42.91 billion euros in 2011, to 49.13 billion euros in 2012, to 55.86 billion euros in 2013 and to 62.85 billion euros in 2014 from 37.29 billion euros in 2010.

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